Analysts expect Nashville's housing market to bounce back by fall 2008 and they are not predicting much rise in home prices before then.
Edsel Charles, founder of Nashville-based MarketGraphics Research Group Inc., a new-home market research company, says the market has almost reached bottom, and will bottom out near the end of January.
He says he expects a slight recovery in the spring but that the market will remain flat throughout the summer.
"It doesn't return to a reasonably decent market until fall of 2008 or spring of 2009," Charles says.
Consumers will find the lowest prices today for new homes, he says.
Charles says he expects the market to "firm up" by August and buyers to be paying full price by March of 2009.
"Material costs are down," Charles says. "So today is the lowest you are going to find for home prices. Everybody dropped prices like nuts."
Charles has talked to builders who had excess inventory and slashed prices to get rid of homes, but he says such discounts are only likely to be around for the next two or three months.
"I met with a builder who sold over 100 houses in the last two months," Charles says. "He just cut and run, dumped inventory. He's down to 15 homes that are not sold. He's saying, 'Now we're at the bottom.'"
Bernard Helm, president of Market Opportunity Research Enterprises in Rocky Mount, N.C., agrees that builders are reducing inventory in Nashville, which he says is smart.
The Nashville Business Journal - Dec. 31, 2008
News, interests, info and tips about the Real Estate Market in Middle Tennessee. Our Focus is the Nashville area, both Williamson and Davidson County and the surrounding areas of Franklin, Brentwood, Spring Hill, Thompson's Station, Hendersonville, Leipers Fork, Belle Meade, Nolensville, the Cool Springs area and the Vanderbilt area
December 31, 2007
December 30, 2007
New Shoping Center to be built in LaVergne
Rutherford County will be getting a $20 million shopping center along Interstate 24, spurred by the recent construction of a Super Target nearby.
Centrum SSI of Nashville, a local affiliate of Centrum Properties Inc. of Chicago, recently bought nearly 21 acres from Jack Oman for $2.6 million.
The land, at the northeast corner of the intersection of Interstate 24 and Sam Ridley Parkway West, will make way for a retail center named The Shoppes at La Vergne, says Brad McNutt, commercial development specialist for Centrum.
McNutt says the growth of retail in the La Vergne-Smyrna area helped make the decision easy.
Colonial Properties Trust, a Birmingham, Ala.-based real estate investment trust, has begun building a major retail center close to Centrum's property. The proximity to Colonial's new Target made Oman's property attractive, McNutt says.
"It will be a regional draw," says McNutt.
The Centrum site is located fully in La Vergne, although it borders the city of Smyrna, where Colonial's Target will stand. Target could open by spring 2008. Colonial's other draw, Kohl's, opened in October.
The area is high in population density but has been underserved, says Holly Sears, Rutherford County vice president of economic development. The new center will help generate sales taxes for local schools and city governments, she says.
The developments are also generating hotel activity, Sears says. A Holiday Inn Express is under construction near the I-24 exit.
Nashville Business Journal - December 28, 2008
Centrum SSI of Nashville, a local affiliate of Centrum Properties Inc. of Chicago, recently bought nearly 21 acres from Jack Oman for $2.6 million.
The land, at the northeast corner of the intersection of Interstate 24 and Sam Ridley Parkway West, will make way for a retail center named The Shoppes at La Vergne, says Brad McNutt, commercial development specialist for Centrum.
McNutt says the growth of retail in the La Vergne-Smyrna area helped make the decision easy.
Colonial Properties Trust, a Birmingham, Ala.-based real estate investment trust, has begun building a major retail center close to Centrum's property. The proximity to Colonial's new Target made Oman's property attractive, McNutt says.
"It will be a regional draw," says McNutt.
The Centrum site is located fully in La Vergne, although it borders the city of Smyrna, where Colonial's Target will stand. Target could open by spring 2008. Colonial's other draw, Kohl's, opened in October.
The area is high in population density but has been underserved, says Holly Sears, Rutherford County vice president of economic development. The new center will help generate sales taxes for local schools and city governments, she says.
The developments are also generating hotel activity, Sears says. A Holiday Inn Express is under construction near the I-24 exit.
Nashville Business Journal - December 28, 2008
December 21, 2007
Hendersonville Real Estate is becoming very desirable
Six corporations looking to relocate to Middle Tennessee are considering making Hendersonville's $1 billion Indian Lake Village their new home as the retail, office and residential development heats up its push to be the next Cool Springs.
"We're talking with users from 20,000 square feet to 200,000 square feet so we're getting a broad range of interest," says Danny Hale, who is developing Indian Lake as managing partner of Halo Properties.
Indian Lake developers also are courting a high-end car dealership, Costco and trying to lure 10 stores from nearby Rivergate Mall - including department stores - to add to their list of high-end retail stores, which open in March.
Millions of dollars in parks and walking trails, a new library and the walkability of the mixed-use village have brought in out-of-state relocating companies with 100 to 1,800 employees, says Don Long, mayoral assistant and director of economic and community development for the city of Hendersonville. Long and Hale wouldn't name the companies looking to relocate to Hendersonville, but say they've landed a spot on the relocation map.
"A couple of years ago we were not even on the radar screen (for corporations). Now we're one of the first stops," Long says.
In October, the National Association of Office and Industrial Properties carted three bus loads of developers, site selectors, architects and real estate professionals to the site to tour the first office building.
Sumner County officials want to bring big business to the area, giving the 40 percent of people who commute to Nashville from Sumner County to work another option.
The retail component of the walkable mixed-use live, work, play development by Halo Properties is larger than the Nashville area's two newest lifestyle centers - The Avenues at Murfreesboro and Providence Marketplace in Mt. Juliet.
Those 810,000- and 830,000-square-foot developments will be dwarfed by the 1.5 million square feet of retail at Indian Lake, which includes high-end stores like Ann Taylor LOFT, Regal Cinema, Ann Taylor, Eddie Bauer, Talbot's, Aveda, Gymboree and Jos. A. Bank. That's also larger than retail space at Cool Springs Galleria and nearby Rivergate Mall.
Indian Lake's first office tenants are moving in now. R.W. Beck and Forward Sumner Economic Council are moving into Indian Lake's first completed office building.
Another benefit of Hendersonville, developers say, is that it offers housing for all pay ranges, from executives to secretaries, which is lacking in Cool Springs. High home prices there have kept many middle-income workers out.
Relocating companies are attracted to areas where all of their employees can afford to live, says Matt Largen, director of business recruitment at the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce.
And Indian Lake Village's addition to the menu of office offerings in Nashville means more enticements for business relocations.
"You have options outside of Davidson and Williamson counties now. It's better for the client to have options, especially when we're competing with other markets that do have options," Largen says.
"We're talking with users from 20,000 square feet to 200,000 square feet so we're getting a broad range of interest," says Danny Hale, who is developing Indian Lake as managing partner of Halo Properties.
Indian Lake developers also are courting a high-end car dealership, Costco and trying to lure 10 stores from nearby Rivergate Mall - including department stores - to add to their list of high-end retail stores, which open in March.
Millions of dollars in parks and walking trails, a new library and the walkability of the mixed-use village have brought in out-of-state relocating companies with 100 to 1,800 employees, says Don Long, mayoral assistant and director of economic and community development for the city of Hendersonville. Long and Hale wouldn't name the companies looking to relocate to Hendersonville, but say they've landed a spot on the relocation map.
"A couple of years ago we were not even on the radar screen (for corporations). Now we're one of the first stops," Long says.
In October, the National Association of Office and Industrial Properties carted three bus loads of developers, site selectors, architects and real estate professionals to the site to tour the first office building.
Sumner County officials want to bring big business to the area, giving the 40 percent of people who commute to Nashville from Sumner County to work another option.
The retail component of the walkable mixed-use live, work, play development by Halo Properties is larger than the Nashville area's two newest lifestyle centers - The Avenues at Murfreesboro and Providence Marketplace in Mt. Juliet.
Those 810,000- and 830,000-square-foot developments will be dwarfed by the 1.5 million square feet of retail at Indian Lake, which includes high-end stores like Ann Taylor LOFT, Regal Cinema, Ann Taylor, Eddie Bauer, Talbot's, Aveda, Gymboree and Jos. A. Bank. That's also larger than retail space at Cool Springs Galleria and nearby Rivergate Mall.
Indian Lake's first office tenants are moving in now. R.W. Beck and Forward Sumner Economic Council are moving into Indian Lake's first completed office building.
Another benefit of Hendersonville, developers say, is that it offers housing for all pay ranges, from executives to secretaries, which is lacking in Cool Springs. High home prices there have kept many middle-income workers out.
Relocating companies are attracted to areas where all of their employees can afford to live, says Matt Largen, director of business recruitment at the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce.
And Indian Lake Village's addition to the menu of office offerings in Nashville means more enticements for business relocations.
"You have options outside of Davidson and Williamson counties now. It's better for the client to have options, especially when we're competing with other markets that do have options," Largen says.
December 13, 2007
Williamson County Nov. 2007 Home Sales
Williamson County Association of Realtors® Announces November 2007 Home Sales
Williamson County Association of REALTORS® Announces November Housing Numbers
December 10, 2007 (Franklin, TN)-The Williamson County Association of REALTORS® today announces the sale of homes statistics for Williamson County, Tn. for the month of November 2007. There were 278 residential and condominium closings reported for the month of November, according to figures provided by RealTracs Solutions, the multiple listing service used by REALTORS® in the Middle-Tennessee area.
Compared to November of 2006, the single family residential closings decreased 20 percent and the median price decreased by 9 percent. Condominiums closings have increased by 30 percent and the median price increased by 16 percent. The decrease in the median price appears to be tied to a decrease in the number of homes in the over $1 million range closing in November. The average days on the market (DOM) for residential homes have increased by 14 days and condominiums have increased by 17 days. Days on the market have been consistent since the onset of 2007, with the days ranging from 58 - 68 days. Median prices have remained consistent since January 2007, ranging from $365,000 to $391,200. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
November 2007
Residential
247 Closings $365,000 Median Price $427,205 Average Price 69 Days on Market
Condominium
31 Closings $219,990 Median Price $227,241 Average Price 40 Days on Market
November 2006
Residential
308 Closings $401,700 Median Price $466,644 Average Price 55 Days on Market
Condominium
24 Closings $189,890 Median Price $219,234 Average Price 23 Days on Market
November 2005
Residential
398 Closings $296,072 Median Price $370,150 Average Price 50 Days on Market
Condominium
52 Closings $152,920 Median Price $167,229 Average Price 27 Days on Market
"The National subprime mortgage crisis peaked in September when many of the sales closed in November were being negotiated, which may explain some of the market change. Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors recently predicated that high-cost markets with many jumbo loans would show a slow down due to the mortgage crisis. That certainly seems to be the case in Williamson County where the downward distortion of the median and average price seems to be due to a slow-down in the higher-priced market. After the holidays, the pent up demand for homes is expected to break so that sellers should be ready for buyers with sparkling clean, updated homes and appealing prices." said Kathie Moore, 2008 President of the Williamson County Association of REALTORS®.
(Williamson County Board of Realtors - December 2007)
Williamson County Association of REALTORS® Announces November Housing Numbers
December 10, 2007 (Franklin, TN)-The Williamson County Association of REALTORS® today announces the sale of homes statistics for Williamson County, Tn. for the month of November 2007. There were 278 residential and condominium closings reported for the month of November, according to figures provided by RealTracs Solutions, the multiple listing service used by REALTORS® in the Middle-Tennessee area.
Compared to November of 2006, the single family residential closings decreased 20 percent and the median price decreased by 9 percent. Condominiums closings have increased by 30 percent and the median price increased by 16 percent. The decrease in the median price appears to be tied to a decrease in the number of homes in the over $1 million range closing in November. The average days on the market (DOM) for residential homes have increased by 14 days and condominiums have increased by 17 days. Days on the market have been consistent since the onset of 2007, with the days ranging from 58 - 68 days. Median prices have remained consistent since January 2007, ranging from $365,000 to $391,200. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less.
November 2007
Residential
247 Closings $365,000 Median Price $427,205 Average Price 69 Days on Market
Condominium
31 Closings $219,990 Median Price $227,241 Average Price 40 Days on Market
November 2006
Residential
308 Closings $401,700 Median Price $466,644 Average Price 55 Days on Market
Condominium
24 Closings $189,890 Median Price $219,234 Average Price 23 Days on Market
November 2005
Residential
398 Closings $296,072 Median Price $370,150 Average Price 50 Days on Market
Condominium
52 Closings $152,920 Median Price $167,229 Average Price 27 Days on Market
"The National subprime mortgage crisis peaked in September when many of the sales closed in November were being negotiated, which may explain some of the market change. Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors recently predicated that high-cost markets with many jumbo loans would show a slow down due to the mortgage crisis. That certainly seems to be the case in Williamson County where the downward distortion of the median and average price seems to be due to a slow-down in the higher-priced market. After the holidays, the pent up demand for homes is expected to break so that sellers should be ready for buyers with sparkling clean, updated homes and appealing prices." said Kathie Moore, 2008 President of the Williamson County Association of REALTORS®.
(Williamson County Board of Realtors - December 2007)
Nashville Home Sales Decline, Prices Bounce Back
Home sales in Nashville continued to decline compared to last year, but median home prices bounced back in November after falling in October.
Total home closings fell 21 percent in November to 2,260 from 2,867 last year. Year-to-date closings are down 13 percent, according to numbers released Monday by the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors.
The median price of a single family home in November was up 3 percent to $179,900 from $174,900 last year. The median price of a condominium was up 4 percent to $167,035 from $159,900.
The current inventory of homes has also grown since last year, up to 22,301 from 17,175 last year. (Nashville Business Journal- December 2008)
Total home closings fell 21 percent in November to 2,260 from 2,867 last year. Year-to-date closings are down 13 percent, according to numbers released Monday by the Greater Nashville Association of Realtors.
The median price of a single family home in November was up 3 percent to $179,900 from $174,900 last year. The median price of a condominium was up 4 percent to $167,035 from $159,900.
The current inventory of homes has also grown since last year, up to 22,301 from 17,175 last year. (Nashville Business Journal- December 2008)
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